What is a Bet Builder and when are SGPs “correlated”?
Comprehensive guide on bet builders, correlated SGPs, and how arbitrage betting offers risk-free profits.
What is a Bet Builder and when are SGPs “correlated”?
A Bet Builder is a betting feature that allows punters to combine multiple selections from the same event into a single bet, while SGPs (Same Game Parlays) are considered correlated when the outcomes of combined selections influence each other.
Understanding when SGPs are correlated is crucial because correlated bets can affect the true probabilities and risk profiles, making straightforward parlay calculations misleading.
Arbitrage betting eliminates guesswork by identifying risk-free opportunities across bookmakers, even when dealing with complex bet builders or correlated parlays.
What is a Bet Builder?
A Bet Builder is a popular betting product offered by many sportsbooks that lets bettors create a custom wager by combining multiple selections from the same sporting event. Unlike traditional parlays that combine bets from different matches or events, bet builders focus on intra-game variables such as player performance, team statistics, and specific outcomes like total goals and corners. This feature provides more flexibility and personalization, allowing bettors to tailor bets based on their predictions within a single game.
- •Combines multiple market selections within one event
- •Offers greater control over specific game scenarios
- •Commonly used in football, basketball, and tennis markets
Understanding SGPs and When They Are Correlated
Same Game Parlays (SGPs) are parlays built from multiple bets within the same event, similar to bet builders but often facilitated by sportsbooks as pre-set or customizable parlays. Correlation occurs when the outcome of one selection affects the probability of another, such as betting on a player to score and the same team to win. This dependency means the combined odds cannot be calculated simply by multiplying independent probabilities, complicating risk assessment and expected returns.
- •SGPs combine multiple outcomes from the same game
- •Correlation arises when selections influence each other's outcomes
- •Ignoring correlation can lead to overestimating potential payouts
Examples of Correlated SGPs
Examples of correlated SGPs include betting on a team to win and a key player to score, or total goals over a threshold combined with a spread bet on the same team. These bets are linked because the player scoring increases the chance of the team winning, or a higher goal total implies a likely win margin.
- →Team to win + player to score
- →Over total goals + point spread on same team
- →First half winner + total points over in first half
💡Correlated Bet Example
If you bet on Team A to win and also on Player X from Team A to score, these bets are correlated since Player X scoring improves Team A's chances of winning. Multiplying odds as if independent inflates the real probability.
True combined probability < Probability(Team A win) × Probability(Player X scores)
Bet Builder vs Traditional Parlays
Traditional parlays combine independent bets from different matches or events, whereas bet builders and SGPs focus on multiple selections within the same game. The key difference lies in correlation: traditional parlays assume independence, making odds calculation straightforward. Bet builders require more nuanced understanding because correlation affects true odds and payout structures.
- •Traditional parlays combine independent bets across events
- •Bet builders combine correlated bets within one event
- •Correlation necessitates adjusted odds and risk management
Why Arbitrage Betting Excels Here
Since correlation complicates traditional parlay strategies, arbitrage betting offers a superior alternative by leveraging price differences across sportsbooks. It avoids reliance on probability assumptions and provides guaranteed returns, which is especially valuable when dealing with correlated bet builders.
- →Avoids dependency on probability estimation
- →Finds risk-free bets even in correlated markets
- →Simplifies betting strategy for consistent profits
Tools to Manage Bet Builders and Correlation
Managing bet builders and correlated SGPs manually can be overwhelming due to complex calculations and rapid odds changes. Betting calculators and arbitrage software like ArbitUp help bettors automate these processes, quickly identifying arbitrage opportunities and correctly factoring in correlation adjustments. This technology reduces errors and improves betting efficiency.
- •Automates complex probability and arbitrage calculations
- •Monitors multiple sportsbooks for best odds
- •Helps bettors avoid common correlation pitfalls
💡Using ArbitUp with Bet Builders
ArbitUp scans bet builder markets across bookmakers, calculates true arbitrage value accounting for correlated selections, and highlights guaranteed profit opportunities in real-time.
Automated arbitrage % = 1 / (sum of inverse odds) accounting for correlation
Best Practices for Bet Builders and SGPs
To maximize value and minimize risk with bet builders and correlated SGPs, bettors should understand correlation effects, avoid blindly multiplying odds, and use tools to validate bets. Diversifying selections and monitoring bookmaker limits also helps maintain betting flexibility.
- •Understand and account for correlation between selections
- •Avoid naive odds multiplication in correlated bets
- •Use arbitrage tools to identify risk-free opportunities
- •Diversify bets to reduce exposure
- •Stay informed about bookmaker rules on bet builders
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- ⚠️Ignoring correlation between selections and multiplying odds as if independent, leading to overestimated payouts
- ⚠️Placing correlated SGPs without understanding the increased risk and bookmaker limits
- ⚠️Failing to use tools to calculate true probabilities and arbitrage opportunities
- ⚠️Assuming bet builders always provide better value without analyzing correlation impact
- ⚠️Not diversifying bets and relying solely on complex bet builders
- ⚠️Overlooking bookmaker rules that restrict or void correlated bets
- ⚠️Mismanaging bankroll due to inflated confidence from misunderstood bet builder odds
The Power of Arbitrage Betting
Arbitrage betting eliminates guesswork by guaranteeing profits regardless of correlation or complex bet structures.
- ✓Secures risk-free profits by exploiting bookmaker price differences
- ✓Removes uncertainty from correlated bets and bet builders
- ✓Automates complex calculations, reducing human error
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IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER
This content is for entertainment and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Sports betting involves substantial risk. Only bet with money you can afford to lose. See our Terms of Service for complete legal disclaimers.